Is the "Manul" IFV getting closer to mass production, or not?

We have previously written about the promising Russian “Manul” IFV, which is essentially a combination of the long-delayed “Kurganets” and the BMP-3. It seemed as though it was about to make its debut, at least as a prototype. However, so far, only an IFV with a new combat module has been unveiled. Below, we’ll examine why this combat vehicle is still undergoing testing and what its version with the “Baikal” module entails.

The good old BMP-3. I love it, but I have some questions.

I have a lot of respect for the BMP-3. It’s a unique vehicle: it can float, fire rockets from its 100-mm barrel, and has a powerful 30-mm automatic cannon. But let’s be honest. There are two major problems.

Problem number one: getting the troops out. The engine on the classic “Troika” is in the back. The troops are seated around it. To get out under fire, a soldier has to climb over the engine or climb up through the roof. That’s suicide! By the time you crawl out on all fours, you’ve already been taken out.

The second problem is the 30-mm cannon. Against modern Bradleys or CV90s—let alone tanks—it’s just a “toy.” A 30-mm round against reactive armor is like peas against a wall. We need a larger caliber. 57 mm—now that’s something!

And then “Manul” appears on stage.

What kind of beast is this? The Anatomy of Regeneration

«Manul» is a major upgrade of the same old BMP-3. But it’s not just a matter of «screwing on a grille and painting it.» It’s a surgical operation.

The engineers at the Kurgan Machine-Building Plant came up with a brilliantly simple solution. The engine was moved forward!

Why? Here’s my honest answer:

  1. Additional armor. If the enemy hits it head-on, it takes a direct hit to the engine. The crew sits behind the iron “meat shield.”
  2. A standard troop deployment. The stern is clear. There’s a ramp, just like on a bus. The paratroopers exit facing the enemy, without exposing their backs.
  3. Comfort on the inside. No need to be a yogi anymore.

The engine is an old UTD-32T with 660 horsepower. Top speed: 70 km/h on the highway, 9.5 km/h on water. At the “Manul” base, it carries the “Epocha” module equipped with a 30-mm cannon and “Kornet” missiles. But the ultimate dream is the “Baikal.”

«Baikal.» Why 57 mm Is «Minced Meat»

A few days ago, “Kurganmashzavod” posted a photo. It shows the “Manul” with a very long gun. The caption mistakenly reads “30 mm.” Don’t pay attention to the caption. Look at the barrel. This is the AU-220M “Baikal”—a module equipped with a 57-mm 2A91 automatic cannon.

Let me break it down for you. A 30-mm shell is like large buckshot. It hurts, but if you’re in armor, it’ll ricochet. A 57-mm round, on the other hand, is like a heavyweight’s fist in brass knuckles. It weighs nearly 3 kg. Its rate of fire is 80 rounds per minute.

Against enemy IFVs. The Bradley and Marder are designed to fire 30-mm rounds from 500 meters. The “Baikal” fires a 57-mm shell from 2–3 km. Its penetration capability is 100 mm. It pierces right through, like a can.

Against tanks. It won’t penetrate the front. But what about the turret roof? The rear? The undercarriage? Ten 57-mm shells fired into the engine compartment will turn any tank into a motionless statue.

Against infantry. A 57-mm high-explosive round leaves a crater and shrapnel over a 10–15-meter radius. One shot—and the platoon is wiped out.

I’ve been browsing Western forums. There’s a lot of panic there. NATO doesn’t have an equivalent to the 57-mm automatic cannon for infantry fighting vehicles. The largest caliber they have is 40 mm.

Why didn’t they choose the «Kurganets-25»? (There’s no money, but hang in there)

Remember the “Kurganets-25”? It was sleek and futuristic, with an unmanned turret and tank-like armor. But when they crunched the numbers—it was a nightmare. A single BMP cost as much as a pair of fighter jets. Plus glitchy electronics, plus sanctions on chips.

What can be done? The army needs thousands of vehicles. Money is in short supply. So KMZ made a smart move: “Let’s take the old BMP-3 hulls—of which there are thousands at the bases—modify them, and mount the ‘Baikal’ on top.”

That’s how the «Manul» was born. It’s a budget-friendly alternative to the «Kurganets.» It’s a real machine that can be built right now using old machinery.

My honest opinion. With a fly in the ointment

What I like:

  1. Firepower. The 57 mm gun is a beast. Within a 2-kilometer radius, the “Manul” is king.
  2. Crew survivability. A forward engine plus a stern ramp—that’s what’s been missing for 30 years.
  3. Affordability. 80% of BMP-3 parts are compatible. Field repairs using old Soviet tools.

The fly in the ointment:

  1. There’s no real-life example. The photo—it might be Photoshopped. Show me a «Manul» firing, and I’ll believe it.
  2. A “menagerie” of equipment. We already have a ton of different models. Spare parts and training—it’s a nightmare for the quartermasters.
  3. The armor is old. The sides have no shields—they’re just cardboard. We need active protection, but there isn’t any.

But I’m an optimist. If it’s accepted, «Manul» will become a legend.

What would that be like in battle? (Fantasy)

Summer 2025. Intelligence reported: a convoy consisting of three Bradleys and two Abrams tanks. Lying in ambush is the “Manulov” Company with “Baikal” vehicles. Distance: 2.5 km.

“Ta-ta-ta-ta!”—a 10-round burst. The first one throws off the rhythm. The second, third, and fourth pierce the armor. The Bradley bursts into flames. The turret is thrown into the air.

The second one tries to get away. The “Manul” veers off to the side and hits the hull. The ammunition load detonates. Abrams is in shock—they’re used to the 30-mm gun just “clinking” away. But now they’re being torn apart for parts.

Yes, war isn’t like a movie. But the point is clear: the 57 mm is a psychological weapon. If you hear «Baikal,» you’re a goner.

Conclusion. What’s the bottom line?

Technically: a brilliant upgrade to the old platform.
Economically: cheap and effective. Ideal for large-scale modernization.
Politically: a response to Western “super-IFVs.”

I believe that at the “Army” forum, they’ll show us a working “Manul” with “Baikal.” No need to reinvent the wheel. Just take some tracks, an engine, and bolt on a 57-mm DRILL. And the enemy will be afraid of even its shadow.

«Manul» isn’t a cat. It’s a killer leopard in the guise of an old «Troika.»

Source — https://dzen.ru/a/adOlOv3QQ1JuAT7G

Daniil
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